‌Impact of the Trump Administration’s Escalating Tariff Policies on China’s Color-Coated Steel Coil Exports

Upon taking office in 2025, the Trump administration swiftly introduced a series of tariff policies targeting China, characterized by unprecedented scale, scope, and frequency compared to its first term. Rooted in the “America First” doctrine, these policies reflect overt trade protectionism aimed at reshaping global trade dynamics.

On February 1, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese goods effective February 4, while revoking duty-free treatment for low-value Chinese parcels. By March 4, the rate was raised to 20%. On April 2, the White House unveiled its controversial “reciprocal tariffs,” uniformly increasing tariffs on Chinese goods to 34%, followed by a further hike to 74% on April 9. On April 10, an additional 41% tariff was imposed, bringing the total tariff rate to a staggering 125%. This incremental escalation underscores the administration’s hardline stance while leaving room for future negotiations.

Against this tariff backdrop, this analysis evaluates the impact on color-coated steel coil exports using Mysteel’s market research data and export trends.

‌II. Limited Direct Impact of Reciprocal Tariffs on Color-Coated Steel Coil Exports‌

Since 2022, color-coated steel coil exports have grown rapidly, reaching a historic high of 7.8064 million metric tons in 2024, accounting for over 30% of total production. Exports play a critical role in alleviating domestic trade pressures and ensuring stable capacity utilization for steel mills. Notably, China’s annual exports to the U.S. have remained below 40,000 metric tons over the past five years—less than 1% of total exports—indicating minimal direct impact from reciprocal tariffs. Indirect challenges, however, warrant closer scrutiny.

‌III. Analysis of Color-Coated Steel Coil Exports Over the Past Five Years‌

The table below ranks the top 10 export destinations for color-coated steel coils (by 2024 volume). Over the past five years, key markets have been concentrated in Southeast Asia, South Asia, East Asia, and the Middle East. In 2024, total exports to the top 10 countries reached 3.1605 million metric tons, representing 40.48% of total exports.

In January-February 2025, China’s coated steel (strip/coil) exports totaled 1.3275 million metric tons, a 33.09% year-on-year increase. Exports to the top 10 destinations during this period amounted to 532,100 metric tons, maintaining a 40%+ share.

The U.S. tariff escalation, however, introduced new complexities:

• ‌April 2, 2025‌: A 10% baseline tariff was imposed on all imports, including those under free trade agreements (e.g., CPTPP, RCEP), applied cumulatively with existing tariffs (e.g., Section 301). Thailand’s tariff rate rose to 36%.
• ‌April 9, 2025‌: Higher differential tariffs targeted 57 countries/regions with significant trade surpluses with the U.S.:
  • Vietnam: 46% (total 56%)
  • EU: 20% (total 30%)
  • India: 27% (total 37%)
  • Indonesia: 32%
  • Myanmar: 44%

While the U.S. has temporarily suspended these measures for 90 days, the top 10 export destinations may face varying impacts in Q2 or Q3.

‌IV. Survey of Sample Export Enterprises‌

Powerson surveyed 13 color-coated steel coil exporters, with key findings:

1. ‌Primary export destinations‌ include Southeast Asia, South America, the Middle East, Africa, and Russia, with monthly exports averaging 110,000 metric tons.
2. ‌Q2 overseas orders‌ declined:
   • Month-on-month reductions: 20–30% for some orders
   • Year-on-year reductions: 5–40% for others
3. ‌Production utilization‌: Most manufacturers operate below full capacity, aligning with broader industry trends. Some enterprises expressed pessimism regarding the impact of reciprocal tariffs.

‌V. Conclusion‌

The Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs have limited direct impact on color-coated steel coil exports but pose significant indirect challenges. Among the top 10 export destinations:

• ‌Southeast Asia (ASEAN)‌: Accounts for 50% of the list (Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Myanmar). Regional integration (e.g., RCEP) drives trade growth, but stricter U.S. scrutiny of transshipments via Vietnam requires vigilance.
• ‌South Asia/Middle East/South America‌: Emerging markets like India, Turkey, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia could become new export avenues if Western tariffs tighten.

‌Recommendations‌:

• Prioritize markets with stable policies, such as ASEAN, India, and Turkey, to mitigate risks associated with direct exports to the U.S.
• Strengthen origin certification processes to avoid transshipment-related trade risks.